เหตุการณ์ใน-นอกโลก VS ภัยธรรมชาติ และupdate พายุสุริยะ

เมฆคืนนี้

 

มันคือ ฝีมือ CME นี่แหล่ะจ้า

อย่างที่บอก มันมาหลายรูปแบบ บ้านเรานี่ส่วนมากมาในรูปอากาศแปรปรวน มาในรูปฝนมากกว่า (ถือว่าโชคดีแหล่ะ ดีกว่าเกิดแผ่นดินไหวใช่ไหม) ถ้าพวกเรารู้จักสังเกตจะจับความสัมพันธ์ของมันได้ เห็นหลายคนที่มาต่อต้านโดยไม่เคยศึกษาข้อมูลหรือติดตามความสัมพันธ์ของธรรมชาติมาก่อน

คือ วันนี้พึ่งไปอ่านเจอคนที่ไปค้านดร.ก้องภพ หรือ ดร.สมิทธ แบบไม่มีเหตุผล ถ้าท่านที่ค้าน เคยตามข้อมูลแล้วมันตรงกันข้ามก็มาลองศึกษากันว่า มันอาจมีปัจจัยอื่นมาทำให้เป็นแบบนั้น ถ้าทุกคนเข้าใจธรรมชาติ จะเห็นความสัมพันธ์กันได้แน่นอน ทุกอย่างมีเหตุ และ มีผล ในตัวเสมอ

 

Solar flares today
Today, 7 solar flares were observed:

Active region Begin, UT Max, UT End, UT
Flare of class M1.4 1618 06:45:00 06:56:00 07:08:00
Flare of class C1.2 1618 08:52:00 08:57:00 09:00:00
Flare of class C4.1 1618 09:17:00 09:41:00 09:43:00
Flare of class M3.5 1618 15:10:00 15:30:00 15:38:00
Flare of class C1.3 0 20:39:00 20:43:00 20:50:00
Flare of class C2.5 1618 21:12:00 21:16:00 21:21:00
Flare of class C1.1 1618 23:09:00 23:12:00 23:14:00

Solar flares yesterday
Yesterday, 8 solar flares were observed:

Active region Begin, UT Max, UT End, UT
Flare of class C3.0 1618 01:37:00 02:07:00 03:05:00
Flare of class C1.3 1618 04:04:00 04:10:00 04:27:00
Flare of class C3.9 1618 06:25:00 06:33:00 06:44:00
Flare of class M1.7 0 12:36:00 12:41:00 12:46:00
Flare of class C1.6 1618 13:48:00 13:51:00 13:54:00
Flare of class C3.1 1618 15:18:00 15:29:00 15:41:00
Flare of class M1.6 1618 19:21:00 19:28:00 19:32:00
Flare of class C3.9 0 22:52:00 23:07:00 23:18:00

ลองดูข้อมูลข้างบนดูสิ 1618 มีหลายลูกมา ที่คาด CME มาถึง แต่อย่าลืม x-ray ที่เข้ามาด้วยนะ ส่วนที่ทำให้เกิดฝน และจุดดับนี้แนวตรงกับไทย ที่บอกแถมหันหน้าเข้ามายังโลก และลองดูจากกราฟสิ ว่ามีกี่ลูก มันเป็นลูกไหนมาอยู่ก็ไม่รู้

ที่บอกมา จะได้เอาเป็นจุดสังเกต ต่อไปในเหตุการณ์ข้างหน้าจ้า ลองๆ ดูกัน

 

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: NOAA forecasters have downgraded the chances of a geomagnetic storm on Nov. 25th to 50% as an incoming CME takes longer to arrive than expected. The tardy cloud might yet spark auroras before the weekend is over

 

วันที่ 23 พฤศจิกายน เกิดพายุุสุริยะรอบด้าน มีพลังงานบางส่วนมาที่โลกซึ่งคาดกว่าจะเดินทางมาถึงในวันที่ 26 พฤศจิกายน เวลา 17 UTC

http://www.truth4thai.org/planetaryalignment/Nov_2012

 

SIDC URSIGRAM 21126
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 26 Nov 2012, 1234UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 26 Nov 2012 until 28 Nov 2012)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Nov 2012 10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Nov 2012 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Nov 2012 10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 005
COMMENT: Five sunspot groups were reported today by Catania. Two of them are expected to produce flaring activity: Catania sunspot groups 27 (NOAA AR 1618) and 31 (NOAA AR 1620) have beta-gamma-delta and
beta-gamma configurations of their photospheric magnetic field, respectively. Strong magnetic flux emergence that takes place in the Catania sunspot group 31 (NOAA AR 1620) since yesterday noon will probably lead to an M-class flare. In any case, C-class flares are
almost certain as the background X-ray flux is now very close to the C1 level. A proton event is possible in case of a strong flare in Catania sunspot group 27 or 31 (NOAA ARs 1618 or 1620) due to their position in the western solar hemisphere. A possibly Earth-directed CME was detected this morning originating from the filament channel right to the south of Catania sunspot group 31 (NOAA AR 1620). It was not a halo CME according
to the SOHO/LASCO data, and STEREO A SECCHI/COR2 data indicate a low speed of this CME (around 300 km/s), so we expect at most a shock arrival at the Earth without any significant geomagnetic disturbance as a result. The Earth is currently in the sheath flow after the shock
arrival this morning detected at 04:38 UT by ACE and at 04:32 UT by SOHO/CELIAS. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude in the sheath flow decreased from moderately high values (around 10 nT) to the current values around 7-8 nT, and the IMF is directed predominantly northward, so the geomagnetic conditions stayed on the quiet to unsettled level up to now. We do not expect the arrival of the ICME driver of the shock, so the geomagnetic activity will stay at the quiet to unsettled level in the coming hours.

 

28 พฤศจิกายน 2555 วันลอยกระทง, จันทรุปราคา, วันเป็งปุ๊ด

 

ข้อความจาก ดร.ก้องภพ (สาธุ)

 

New Solar Cycle Prediction - NASA Science

New Solar Cycle Prediction



May 29, 2009: An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots.

"If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

Right: A solar flare observed in Dec. 2006 by NOAA's GOES-13 satellite.

It is tempting to describe such a cycle as "weak" or "mild," but that could give the wrong impression.

"Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather," points out Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013."

The 1859 storm--known as the "Carrington Event" after astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare--electrified transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their red and green glow. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a similar storm occurred today, it could cause $1 to 2 trillion in damages to society's high-tech infrastructure and require four to ten years for complete recovery. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina caused "only" $80 to 125 billion in damage.

Above: This plot of sunspot numbers shows the measured peak of the last solar cycle in blue and the predicted peak of the next solar cycle in red. Credit: NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center. [more]

The latest forecast revises an earlier prediction issued in 2007. At that time, a sharply divided panel believed solar minimum would come in March 2008 followed by either a strong solar maximum in 2011 or a weak solar maximum in 2012. Competing models gave different answers, and researchers were eager for the sun to reveal which was correct.

"It turns out that none of our models were totally correct," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA's lead representative on the panel. "The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."

Researchers have known about the solar cycle since the mid-1800s. Graphs of sunspot numbers resemble a roller coaster, going up and down with an approximately 11-year period. At first glance, it looks like a regular pattern, but predicting the peaks and valleys has proven troublesome. Cycles vary in length from about 9 to 14 years. Some peaks are high, others low. The valleys are usually brief, lasting only a couple of years, but sometimes they stretch out much longer. In the 17th century the sun plunged into a 70-year period of spotlessness known as the Maunder Minimum that still baffles scientists.

Above: Yearly-averaged sunspot numbers from 1610 to 2008. Researchers believe upcoming Solar Cycle 24 will be similar to the cycle that peaked in 1928, marked by a red arrow. Credit: NASA/MSFC

Right now, the solar cycle is in a valley--the deepest of the past century. In 2008 and 2009, the sun set Space Age records for low sunspot counts, weak solar wind, and low solar irradiance. The sun has gone more than two years without a significant solar flare.

"In our professional careers, we've never seen anything quite like it," says Pesnell. "Solar minimum has lasted far beyond the date we predicted in 2007."

In recent months, however, the sun has begun to show timorous signs of life. Small sunspots and "proto-sunspots" are popping up with increasing frequency. Enormous currents of plasma on the sun’s surface ("zonal flows") are gaining strength and slowly drifting toward the sun’s equator. Radio astronomers have detected a tiny but significant uptick in solar radio emissions. All these things are precursors of an awakening Solar Cycle 24 and form the basis for the panel's new, almost unanimous forecast.

According to the forecast, the sun should remain generally calm for at least another year. From a research point of view, that's good news because solar minimum has proven to be more interesting than anyone imagined. Low solar activity has a profound effect on Earth’s atmosphere, allowing it to cool and contract. Space junk accumulates in Earth orbit because there is less aerodynamic drag. The becalmed solar wind whips up fewer magnetic storms around Earth's poles. Cosmic rays that are normally pushed back by solar wind instead intrude on the near-Earth environment. There are other side-effects, too, that can be studied only so long as the sun remains quiet.

Meanwhile, the sun pays little heed to human committees. There could be more surprises, panelists acknowledge, and more revisions to the forecast.

"Go ahead and mark your calendar for May 2013," says Pesnell. "But use a pencil."

Author: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA