ประกาศข่าวแผ่นดินไหว(&การคาดการณ์)

"ทำใจ"ต้องอาศัย"ธรรมะ"เข้าช่วยครับ งั้นผมขออนุโมทนาท่าน UncleGee ในการน้อมธรรมะมาทำใจด้วย
ผมก็จะไปทำใจบ้างแบบนี้ก็จะดีมากทีเดียว ... ทำใจแล้วเอาใจที่ทำให้ดีขึ้นไปแล้วนั้น มาช่วยเพื่อนมนุษย์กันต่อๆไปนะครับ
อนุโมทนาท่าน UncleGee ด้วย ...

ส่วนตัวผมช่วงนี้ก็พยายาม"ทำทุกๆอย่างให้ดีที่สุดเต็มสามารถ" แต่จะ"พยายามที่จะไม่ยึดอะไรเลย" เพราะอะไรๆทั้งหมดไม่เที่ยงเลยครับ
"ยึดมั่นในสิ่งใดถ้าไม่วางลง ในท้ายที่สุดนั่นอาจเกิดทุกข์ได้ทั้งสิ้น"ครับ ...

พยายามกันต่อไปครับ ขอให้การเกิดในครั้งนี้ในชาตินี้ของทุกๆท่าน"เป็นครั้งสุดท้าย หรือเป็นครั้งที่ใกล้การเลิกเกิดกันมากที่สุด" ...

"นิพพานัง ปรมังสุขขัง" ... "พระนิพพาน เป็นบรมสุขอย่างยิ่ง" ...
เอาใจช่วยครับท่าน UncleGee ... สู้ๆกันต่อไปครับ ...


.. ^^ ...

 

แผ่นดินไหวที่ ต.เชิงดอย อ.ดอยสะเก็ด จ.เชียงใหม่

ขนาด : 2.0 ริกเตอร์
จุดศูนย์กลางแผ่นดินไหว : ต.เชิงดอย อ.ดอยสะเก็ด จ.เชียงใหม่
วันที่ : 13 ตุลาคม 2556 15:22 น.
ละติจูด : 18° 54' 36'' เหนือ
ลองจิจูด : 99° 10' 12'' ตะวันออก
ความลึกจากระดับผิวดิน : กิโลเมตร
เพิ่มเติม : TMD

 

ท่าน kiatp123 กับท่าน UncleGee น่าจะนอนแล้ว
เลยแอบมารายงานต่อ อิอิ ... ^^ ...
(เห็นมันไหวใกล้บ้านเราน่ะ เลยรีบบอก แต่เอาภาพเข้าไปใว้ที่เว็บรับฝากรูปไม่เป็น เลยได้แค่นี้ล่ะ ฮ่าฮ่า) ...

2013-10-13 17:32:47 M5.6 3.99°N 95.96°E 56 A MT Off West Coast of Northern Sumatra
2013-10-13 17:20:56 M4.6 23.17°N 122.78°E 10 A Taiwan Region
2013-10-13 16:14:17 M4.4 36.82°N 71.30°E 150 A Afghanistan-Tajikistan Border Region

ที่มา : GEOFON Program GFZ Potsdam :: GFZ Potsdam - Earthquake Bulletin

มันใกล้สนามบินด้วยนะ ความชันประมาณแค่ 0.5%เองอันตรายอยู่นะ คลื่นฟอร์มตัวง่าย(ยกสูง) ถ้าไหวมากกว่านี้อาจยุ่ง ไหวแนวไหนไม่รู้?ผมดูรูปบันลูนยังไม่เป็นครับ ...
... ผมจะไปนอนบ้างแล้วล่ะครับ ...

... ^^ ...

 

M 7.2, 2km S of Carmen, Philippines 9.8 124.2
Tuesday, October 15, 2013 00:13:00 UTC
Tuesday, October 15, 2013 08:13:00 at epicenter

Depth: 33.00 km (20.51 mi)



M 7.2, 2km S of Nueva Vida Sur, Philippines 9.762 124.174
Tuesday, October 15, 2013 00:12:38 UTC
Tuesday, October 15, 2013 08:12:38 at epicenter

Depth: 33.00 km (20.51 mi)


Earthquakes Today

 

แผ่นดินไหวรุนแรง N 7.2 ลึก 10 km บนหมู่เกาะมินดาเนา ฟิลิปปินส์

Update 00:42 UTC : Based on theoretical calculations, nearly 3.6 million people should have felt a very strong shaking and 7.6 million people a strong shaking.
Based on the incoming reader reports from places at less then 100 km from the epicenter we are receiving strong shaking values, a little less than the theoretical outcome.
Update 00:32 UTC : It would really surprise us that based on the current data, that there will be no damage, injuries or fatalities. Balilihan , very close to the epicenter has a population of 17000 people
Extremely dangerous shallow earthquake (based on preliminary data). The earthquake struck below land near Carmen. More details in a moment


629 km SE of Manila, Philippines / pop: 10,444,527 / local time: 08:12:33.0 2013-10-15
60 km SE of Cebu City, Philippines / pop: 798,634 / local time: 08:12:33.0 2013-10-15
2 km NW of Mahayag, Philippines / pop: 2,353 / local time: 08:12:33.0 2013-10-15
2km (1mi) S of Carmen, Philippines
31km (19mi) ESE of Tibigan, Philippines
40km (25mi) SSW of Talibon, Philippines
41km (25mi) ENE of Tagbilaran, Philippines
636km (395mi) SSE of Manila, Philippine

 

อัพเดทแผ่นดินไหวฟิลิปปินส์ M 7.4[/B]

Update 01:17 UTC : Reports from Bohol are mentioning “roads torn up, electricity cables down
Update 01:10 UTC : Reports are giving at least 4 fatalities. Many provincial authorities have suspended classes for today. Also reports of many collapsed houses in Bohol
ยอดตายมีรายงานแล้ว 4 คน มีบ้านเรือนพังถล่มหลายหลังในเมือง Bohol
Update 01:09 UTC : The theoretical damage engine from Max Wyss is giving the following grim results :
ESTIMATE OF HUMAN LOSSES
Injured Exp. min/max: 100/1500
Fatalities Exp. min/max: 0/200
คำนวณความเสียหายจากคอมพิวเตอร์ จะมียอดตายไม่เกิน 200 คน เจ็บไม่เกิน 500 คน

เริ่มต้นเหตุการณ์ USGS วัดขนาดแผ่นดินไหวได้ M 7.4 ต่อมาได้ลดขนาดลงไปเรื่อยๆ
ปัจจุบันเหลือประมาณ 7.2 มีแผ่นดินไหวตามหรือ aftershock ขนาดใหญ่ตามมาอีกหลายครี้ง
ตอนนี้กำลังตรวจสอบกับสำนักตรวจแผ่นดินไหวและภูเขาไฟของทางการฟิลิปปินส์อยู่ แต่ยัง
เข้าไม่ได้ คาดว่า server คงล่มไปแล้ว

 

Update 01:17 UTC : A Initial Focal Mechanism is pointing to a reverse faulting (= a fault who is pushing at both ends towards each other).




Update 01:17 UTC : A 400 year old church in Bohol has collapsed



Some ER readers experiences :
Cebu City : I’ve been in several earthquakes in my life. This was by far the strongest & most frightening. I thought my building would fall down. Many aftershocks continuing every few minutes. Power is out everywhere. Even our generator has not come on yet

Massive extremely dangerous shallow earthquake in Mindanao, Philippines – At least 4 fatalities

 

Update 01:32 UTC : The picture below shows the kind of damage that we can expect the following hours.


Update 01:32 UTC : Good news from Negros Oriental who is reporting no structural damage.
Update 01:30 UTC : New recalculated data from USGS are locating the epicenter in between Balilihan, Bohol and Sevilla. Also good news is that the depth of the hypocenter is at 57 km instead of the initially reported 33 km. That’s a world of difference. The deeper the hypocenter, the less dangerous the earthquake is BUT this also means that the earthquake will be felt in a wider radius

 

Tectonic Summary

Seismotectonics of the Philippine Sea and Vicinity



The Philippine Sea plate is bordered by the larger Pacific and Eurasia plates and the smaller Sunda plate. The Philippine Sea plate is unusual in that its borders are nearly all zones of plate convergence. The Pacific plate is subducted into the mantle, south of Japan, beneath the Izu-Bonin and Mariana island arcs, which extend more than 3,000 km along the eastern margin of the Philippine Sea plate. This subduction zone is characterized by rapid plate convergence and high-level seismicity extending to depths of over 600 km. In spite of this extensive zone of plate convergence, the plate interface has been associated with few great (M>8.0) ‘megathrust’ earthquakes. This low seismic energy release is thought to result from weak coupling along the plate interface (Scholz and Campos, 1995). These convergent plate margins are also associated with unusual zones of back-arc extension (along with resulting seismic activity) that decouple the volcanic island arcs from the remainder of the Philippine Sea Plate (Karig et al., 1978; Klaus et al., 1992).

South of the Mariana arc, the Pacific plate is subducted beneath the Yap Islands along the Yap trench. The long zone of Pacific plate subduction at the eastern margin of the Philippine Sea Plate is responsible for the generation of the deep Izu-Bonin, Mariana, and Yap trenches as well as parallel chains of islands and volcanoes, typical of circum-pacific island arcs. Similarly, the northwestern margin of the Philippine Sea plate is subducting beneath the Eurasia plate along a convergent zone, extending from southern Honshu to the northeastern coast of Taiwan, manifested by the Ryukyu Islands and the Nansei-Shoto (Ryukyu) trench. The Ryukyu Subduction Zone is associated with a similar zone of back-arc extension, the Okinawa Trough. At Taiwan, the plate boundary is characterized by a zone of arc-continent collision, whereby the northern end of the Luzon island arc is colliding with the buoyant crust of the Eurasia continental margin offshore China.

Along its western margin, the Philippine Sea plate is associated with a zone of oblique convergence with the Sunda Plate. This highly active convergent plate boundary extends along both sides the Philippine Islands, from Luzon in the north to the Celebes Islands in the south. The tectonic setting of the Philippines is unusual in several respects: it is characterized by opposite-facing subduction systems on its east and west sides; the archipelago is cut by a major transform fault, the Philippine Fault; and the arc complex itself is marked by active volcanism, faulting, and high seismic activity. Subduction of the Philippine Sea Plate occurs at the eastern margin of the archipelago along the Philippine Trench and its northern extension, the East Luzon Trough. The East Luzon Trough is thought to be an unusual example of a subduction zone in the process of formation, as the Philippine Trench system gradually extends northward (Hamburger et al., 1983). On the west side of Luzon, the Sunda Plate subducts eastward along a series of trenches, including the Manila Trench in the north, the smaller less well-developed Negros Trench in the central Philippines, and the Sulu and Cotabato trenches in the south (Cardwell et al., 1980). At its northern and southern terminations, subduction at the Manila Trench is interrupted by arc-continent collision, between the northern Philippine arc and the Eurasian continental margin at Taiwan and between the Sulu-Borneo Block and Luzon at the island of Mindoro. The Philippine fault, which extends over 1,200 km within the Philippine arc, is seismically active. The fault has been associated with major historical earthquakes, including the destructive M7.6 Luzon earthquake of 1990 (Yoshida and Abe, 1992). A number of other active intra-arc fault systems are associated with high seismic activity, including the Cotabato Fault and the Verde Passage-Sibuyan Sea Fault (Galgana et al., 2007).

Relative plate motion vectors near the Philippines (about 80 mm/yr) is oblique to the plate boundary along the two plate margins of central Luzon, where it is partitioned into orthogonal plate convergence along the trenches and nearly pure translational motion along the Philippine Fault (Barrier et al., 1991). Profiles B and C reveal evidence of opposing inclined seismic zones at intermediate depths (roughly 70-300 km) and complex tectonics at the surface along the Philippine Fault.

Several relevant tectonic elements, plate boundaries and active volcanoes, provide a context for the seismicity presented on the main map. The plate boundaries are most accurate along the axis of the trenches and more diffuse or speculative in the South China Sea and Lesser Sunda Islands. The active volcanic arcs (Siebert and Simkin, 2002) follow the Izu, Volcano, Mariana, and Ryukyu island chains and the main Philippine islands parallel to the Manila, Negros, Cotabato, and Philippine trenches.

Seismic activity along the boundaries of the Philippine Sea Plate (Allen et al., 2009) has produced 7 great (M>8.0) earthquakes and 250 large (M>7) events. Among the most destructive events were the 1923 Kanto, the 1948 Fukui and the 1995 Kobe (Japan) earthquakes (99,000, 5,100, and 6,400 casualties, respectively), the 1935 and the 1999 Chi-Chi (Taiwan) earthquakes (3,300 and 2,500 casualties, respectively), and the 1976 M7.6 Moro Gulf and 1990 M7.6 Luzon (Philippines) earthquakes (7,100 and 2,400 casualties, respectively). There have also been a number of tsunami-generating events in the region, including the Moro Gulf earthquake, whose tsunami resulted in more than 5000 deaths.

 

Update 02:31 UTC : The NDRRMC (comparable with the Civil Defense elsewhere) will hold a briefing at 12 noon today (local time) on the effects of the Bohol earthquake.
Update 02:26 UTC : James Daniell has calculated (based on the preliminary data we have received so far) that the damage will be 6-22 million US$, depending on intensity assumed at epicenter – this is a lot for the Philippines. We will give a closer estimate later today when we have more info from each town (= 500-800 million Philippine pesos)
Update 02:18 UTC : The death toll has unfortunately increased from 4 to 6 (Bohol : 2 and Cebu : 4)
ตายเพิ่มอีก 2 คน รวมเป็น 6 คน จากเมืองโบฮอล์ 2 เมืองเซบู 4

Update 02:13 UTC : The economic damage is expected to be huge. The CATDAT engine of James Daniell may be able to give an initial result later today



Update 02:06 UTC : We are receiving very few reports from the actual epicenter area, which may mean that mobile communication and electricity is down in that area. No new reports on injured and/or fatalities. this is normal so shortly after the earthquake as we are still in the Chaos timeframe.
Update 01:53 UTC : Our own CATDAT theoretical model comes out with 10-20 fatalities median due to shaking… Depending on hypocenter. We have also reports of collapsed houses along the coastal roads. The historic buildings of the province have been hardly hit.

 

Update 02:42 UTC : The Philippines seismological agency Phivolcs is reporting the following I Have Felt It intensities (Philippine scale = a little stronger than the MMI scale) :
Intensity VII – Tagbilaran, Bohol
Intensity VI – Inigaran, Negros Occidental
Intensity V- Iloilo City; La Carlota;
Intensity IV – Masbate City; Roxas City; San Jose, Culasi, Antique; Guihulngan, Negros Oriental
Intensity III – Davao City;


Update 02:31 UTC : The NDRRMC (comparable with the Civil Defense elsewhere) will hold a briefing at 12 noon today (local time) on the effects of the Bohol earthquake.


http://earthquake-report.com/2013/1...uake-mindanao-philippines-on-october-15-2013/

 

Massive extremely dangerous earthquake in Mindanao, Philippines – At least 4 fatalities

Update 02:55 UTC : So far NO word of Balilihan, a city with 17000 inhabitants and only a couple of km from the epicenter. Sevilla, another location very close to the epicenter has about 10,000 inhabitants. Tagbilaran City, a city within a radius of 30 km from the epicenter has more than 100,000 inhabitants. The island of Bohol has a population of 1.2 million
Update 02:55 UTC : At least 5 historic churches have collapsed (Baclayon, Loboc, Dauis; Loay and Loon). We have changed the fatalities in the title back to 4 as the 2 fatalities from Bohol have not yet been confirmed by the authorities
Update 02:55 UTC : The video below is in fact a compilation of some damage images. It was made by a Filipino
<iframe width="420" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/1MLiZfdQqTs" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Update 02:50 UTC : The positive news from this earthquake is that the serious damage is not widespread although we have to be cautious as we have seen only few reports from the direct epicenter area. The press conference of the NDRRMC has now started
Massive extremely dangerous earthquake in Mindanao, Philippines – At least 4 fatalities

 

ฟิลิปปินส์แผ่นดินไหว 7.2 ริคเตอร์

วันอังคารที่ 15 ตุลาคม 2556 เวลา 09:41 น.



เกิดแผ่นดินไหวรุนแรง 7.2 ริคเตอร์ ใกล้กับเกาะแห่งหนึ่งทางตอนกลางของฟิลิปปินส์ ตามด้วยอาฟเตอร์ช็อกอย่างน้อย 2 ครั้ง และมีผู้เสียชีวิตแล้ว 6 ศพ


สำนักข่าวต่างประเทศรายงานจากกรุงมะนิลา ประเทศฟิลิปปินส์ เมื่อวันที่ 15 ต.ค. ว่าสำนักงานสำรวจธรณีวิทยาสหรัฐ ( ยูเอสจีเอส ) รายงานการตรวจพบแผ่นดินไหวรุนแรง 7.2 ริคเตอร์ ที่ฟิลิปปินส์ เมื่อเวลา 08.12 น. ตามเวลาท้องถิ่น ( 07.12 น. ตามเวลาในประเทศไทย ) มีจุดศูนย์กลางลึกลงไปใต้ทะเลราว 58 กิโลเมตร ห่างจากเมืองบาลิลิฮาน บนเกาะโบฮอล หนึ่งในเกาะย่อยของเขตเซนทรัลวิซายาส์ ไปทางตะวันออกราว 5 กิโลเมตร ทั้งนี้ เกาะโบฮอลตั้งอยู่ทางตอนใต้ของเกาะเซบู

หลังจากนั้นมีรายงานการเกิดแผ่นดินไหวตาม ( อาฟเตอร์ช็อก ) แล้ว 2 ครั้ง มีความรุนแรงอยู่ในระดับ 5.0 ริคเตอร์ ทำให้ยูเอสจีเอสออกประกาศเตือนภัยในระดับสีเหลือง เนื่องจากมีความเป็นไปได้ที่จะมีความเสียหายเกิดขึ้น

แม้ศูนย์เตือนภัยสึนามิในมหาสมุทรแปซิฟิกยังไม่ได้ออกประกาศเตือนภัยคลื่นสึนามิ แต่มีรายงานการพบผู้เสียชีวิตอย่างน้อย 6 ศพ และบาดเจ็บอีก 19 คน สาเหตุเกิดจากการที่หลังคาตลาดสดแห่งหนึ่งในเมืองมันเดา บนเกาะเซบู ซึ่งได้รับแรงสั่นสะเทือนจากแผ่นดินไหวครั้งนี้ด้วยเกิดพังถล่มลงมา ทับใส่ประชาชนที่กำลังซื้อ-ขายสินค้ากันอยู่
ฟิลิปปินส์แผ่นดินไหว 7.2 ริคเตอร์ | เดลินิวส์

 

Main shock และ after shock
M 7.2 ฟิลิปปินส์

 

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/fJuZdf9laZA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

Massive extremely dangerous earthquake in Bohol, Philippines – At least 20 fatalities

Update 06:15 UTC : In Balilihan, the Bohol Mayor, Dominisio Chatto has confirmed that 5 people died from a landslide due to the earthquake. As said earlier, it is expected that around 10-20 fatalities due to shaking will occur, and based on historic events, at least the same with landslide deaths. This brings the death toll presuming no double counting to at least 25.
We are still waiting on more information from the Chocolate Hills region and Carmen.
Update 05:35 UTC : The National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC) in a press briefing said 33 others were reported injured during the earthqauke. The report said 19 people were injured in Mandaue City when a portion of the public market collapsed, six in Toledo City and eight in Pinamungahan were injured in a stampede
Update 05:20 UTC : A new M5.2 aftershock struck the greater epicenter area. Based on the type of earthquake we expect only aftershocks greater than 5.5 to further damage the area.

Update 05:04 UTC : 110 aftershocks hit Bohol 3 hours after magnitude 7.2 mainshock. Not all of them have been felt by people. Phivolcs reported a little earlier that the strongest aftershock measured 4.6. We are convinced that some powerful ones might still happen.
Update 04:53 UTC : A school partially collapsed in Talisay cit
Update 04:31 UTC : The Chocolate Hills viewing tower has collapsed. Sea travel has been suspended

Red Cross Emergency Numbers: Cebu Chapter 032- 4124140 | 09209294645 and Bohol Chapter 038-5019175 | 09209031793 @RedCrossCebu
Update 04:11 UTC : The number of 20 fatalities has now been confirmed by the authorities : The National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC) said 20 people were reported dead in the wake of the quake: 15 in Cebu, 4 in Bohol and one person in Siquijor.
Update 04:09 UTC : Unofficial reports are mentioning a far higher death toll : 20 in total (15 in Cebu, 4 in Bohol, 1 in Siquijor)
Update 03:53 UTC : Earthquake-Report.com does thank the Filipinos who have shared their experience with other Filipinos and with the rest of the world. Important to know however is that we have not yet received 1 experience report from Bohol itself. This means that the damage on the island must be big and that communications are still down. We do fear bad news from the island later in the day.
Update 03:45 UTC : So far we have no news of Carmen, the location very near the Chocolate Hills. Carmen has a population of 43,579 ! Phivolcs puts the epicenter almost below the city !. It is very complicated for seismologists to calculate the exact location of the epicenter. An error margin of several km is normal.
The greater earthquake area hosts a famous geological treasure, The Chocolate Hills (see below). The Chocolate Hills is a National Geological Monument and was proposed for inclusion in the UNESCO World Heritage Lis



Update 03:33 UTC : The fault who generated today’s earthquake is probably the East Bohol Fault (see on the map below). More research has to be made (and will be made) to determine what triggered the earthquake.



Update 03:30 UTC : According to the local ABS-CBN news network in the Philippines, at least 9 people were killed during the earthquake