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Worried About Comet Elenin? FAQs from Ian Musgrave

by Nancy Atkinson on <abbr class="published" title="2011-07-20">July 20, 2011</abbr>



Orbit of Comet C/2010 X1 Elenin (red) visualised with Celestia, showing Elenin at closest approach to Earth. Image courtesy of Ian Musgrave

Astronomer and blogger Ian Musgrave from South Australia has been active in debunking the misinformation and nonsense that is being disseminated about Comet Elenin. He has written several wonderful posts featuring the actual realities of this long-period lump of dirty ice that has, for some reason, attracted the attention of doomsdayers, 2012ers, and end-of-the-world scaremongers. Earlier this week, Ian’s Elenin posts on his Astroblog were taken down by the web host, as someone filed a claim for alleged violation of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA). “Given that there is no copyrighted material on these pages, with either material generated entirely by me or links to and citation of publicly available material, I believe this was just a frivolous attack on people countering Elenin nonsense” Ian said. Astroblog was not the only site that was targeted, and thankfully, Ian’s web host agreed that the claim was without merit, and the posts are back online. In the interim, however, Universe Today offered to publish Ian’s excellent “Comet Elenin, a FAQ for the Worried” post, and even though the original is now available again, Ian and I decided to still post this on UT so that more people with questions about Comet Elenin would have the chance to have their worries allayed. Have your questions answered below.

Will Comet Elenin Hit Earth?: No, its closest approach is 0.23 AU on Oct 16, 2011, where 1 AU is the distance from the Earth to the Sun. To put this in perspective, this is only a little closer than the closest approach of Venus to Earth, and roughly 100 times the distance from the Earth to the Moon. This distance is from the latest MPEC ephemeris which is based on over 100 observations from multiple observatories that have been continuously tracking the comet, so it won’t change appreciably.

Surely if Elenin Was Going to Hit the Earth NASA/the Government Would Hush it Up? Which government? The Australian Government, the UK Government? The Italian Government? The South African Government? Amateur astronomers world wide are following this comet and continually talking to each other. The have the programs to work out where the comet is going. If the comet was coming anywhere near us, the amateur community would be first to know, and there is no keeping them quite. Consider how wide spread the information is about Apophis, which is a real, if extremely marginal, hazard.

Will it Cause Earthquakes, Abnormally High Tides or Other Disasters: No, Elenin is a mere 3-5 kilometres across and has less than a billionth of the tidal force of the Moon at closest approach (as well as a negligible magnetic field). If the Moon can’t cause the poles to tip, cause massive tidal floods or earthquakes, Comet 2010 X1 Elenin won’t. We’ve been closer to other comets before with no ill effect.

But What About Mensur Omerbashich’s Paper that Says Elenin is Causing Earthquakes? It shows nothing of the sort, earthquakes are no more common during comet alignments than at any other time.

But it’s bigger than Jupiter! No, that’s the coma , the thin haze of gas and dust that surrounds the comet nucleus. The nucleus of C/2010 X1 Elenin is roughly 3-4 Km in diameter and Elenin has a coma around 50,000 km wide at the time of writing (which is a third of the diameter of Jupiter). The average density of the coma is about the same as the density of the atmosphere on the Moon. A coma is a feature of all comets that approach the Sun closely, for example comet 81P Wild (nucleus 4 Km diameter) had a coma of 50,000 Km and 103P Hartley had a coma of 150,000 Km. The Great Comet of 1811 had a nucleus of around 30km in diameter and had a coma nearly as big as the Sun. Comet Halley is 6×15 km and had a coma 100,000 km wide when it last approached Earth. We survived them all (and 103P Hartley came nearly twice as close as Elenin will), and we will survive Elenin without incident.

But I Can See a Picture of it in WikiSky, it’s HUGE! That is the carbon star CW Leonis.

Is Elenin a Moon of a Brown Dwarf Star? No.

But Brown Dwarf Stars are so Cold, you Can’t See Them. No, coldest detected so far is ~370K (about the temperature of a hot cup of tea), the the warmest are around 2200 K, and most range between 500-1000 K. They may not produce much visible light, but they reflect light. Jupiter has a composition similar to those of Brown Dwarf stars. Jupiter’s cloud tops are a chilly 128 K and it reflects light just fine. Any Brown Dwarf in the inner solar system would be painfully obvious.

Will Going Through the Comets Tail Affect Us? No, should the rather small tail of Elenin actually pass over us, it’s doing a pretty good imitation of a vacuum (about 100 atoms per cm3). We have been through bigger and denser comet tails before with no effect whatsoever (especially the Great Comet of 1861).

Why isn’t Comet Elenin in the News? For the same reason that the other 16 comets discovered in 2010 didn’t get in the news, or the 5 comets discovered in 2011. They are all dim. The News is only interested in comets that are spectacular, readily visible to the unaided eye or are being visited by spacecraft. Comet 2009 P1 will be as bright, if not brighter than C/2010 X1 Elenin, but that’s not in the news either. Amateur and professional astronomers are watching comet Elenin and others avidly, but the news channels don’t care about our obsessions with faint fuzzies.

Why Can’t I Find Information of Elenin at the NASA Website? Because NASA is not the arbiter of all things astronomical. You won’t find information on C/2009 P1, C/2011 C1 or any of the faint comets discovered during 2010 and 2011. NASA does have information of comets that its spacecraft have visited, or are interesting in some other way, but it’s not an exhaustive comet site like Cometography or Aerith.

(editor’s note, NASA and JPL’s Near Earth Object Office did publish an article about Comet Elenin in May, 2011, which can be found at this link, confirming it will safely fly past Earth.)

I Saw Comet Elenin Near the Sun in August 2010/Now: In August 2010 only really powerful telescopes could see Elenin. You saw Venus. If you are seeing something bright near the Sun in the morning sky now, it’s Venus.

How Can I Tell What IS in the Sky and Avoid The Venus Confusion? For freeware standalone programs there is Cartes du Ciel and Stellarium (my favourite). For Web based solutions Skyview Cafe, Sky-Map and GoogleEarth (KMZ file here) all work.

Where Can I Find Orbital Elements for Celestia or Stellarium? Here.

Where Can I Find Images of Elenin? Here, and here and a nice image of C/2010 X1 near to NGC 3376 is here.

I have Photographed/ Seen a Photograph of a Double Sun, is this Elenin? It’s lens flare.
Other Good Links:

Leonid Elenin calculates what would happen to planets if a Brown Dwarf was in the inner solar system.
The Sceptics on Elenin.
Astronotes, 10 facts you need to know about Elenin.

Astronomy Beat on Elenin (PDF)
See this original post by Ian Musgrave on Astroblog
Tagged as: Comet Elenin, Comets, Elenin

 

Latest On Comet Elenin

sydneystargazers | July 29, 2011 at 1:15 pm | Categories: Notes |



The latest calculations on Elenin's orbit shows that Elenin will pass Earth on October 16th at a distance of 34.9 million km , or 91 times further away than our Moon.

For anyone still worried that Elenin is going to be an issue for Earth as some websites are predicting with their doom and gloom theories, please refer to this article in Universe Today by Australian astronomer Ian Musgrave

Worried About Comet Elenin? FAQs from Ian Musgrave
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เจ้าดาวหาง พาเพื่อนมากันใหญ่

Elenin is not the only comet that we will see from Earth .
Below is the latest picture of comet Garradd which will put on a nice show during August.

Comet Garradd (Click to Enlarge)
​

 

PLANET X SPECIAL REPORT WITH MARSHALL MASTERS: COMET ELENIN - WILL ITS
UNMASKING BE OUR UNDOING?

Tuesday, August 9, 2011
5 PM PST / 8 PM EST
Chat Room + Call In
YowRadio.com

PANEL: Ed Douglas and Richard Goodwin of the PlanetxTownHall.com,
Comet Elenin Research Team http://planetxtownhall.com/<wbr>index.php?board=123.0

As Comet Elenin approaches its closest point to the Earth, could it become the Blue Star Kachina mentioned in Hopi Prophecy? Many believe so and for a similar reason as Mayan elders, who in 2007, declared Comet Holmes (17P/Holmes) to be the Blue Star Kachina of Hopi
Prophecy, although Hopi elders never took a public stand on Comet Holmes.

So is Comet Elenin a young and relatively uninteresting comet, as official sources maintain, or is there a hidden twist?

Comet Holmes (17P/Holmes) was discovered in 1892 as the result of an unexpected flare and eruption. In 2007, it did the same thing as it approached the asteroid belt and it brightened a millionfold overnight in November of that year. This unexpected onset of this brightening corresponded to one critical aspect of the prophecy. That the Blue
Kachina will unmask itself, but is that enough?

Here is the rub. Comet Holmes never came closer to the Earth than the asteroid belt, whereas Comet Elenin Comet Elenin does cross Earth's orbit. So what happens if Comet Elenin, surprises us with unexpected flare and eruption in the same way that Comet Holmes did? This is the
critical question the Planet X Town Hall Comet Elenin Research Group addresses in this show.

The team will also address the theory that Comet Elenin is dark star or planet given new findings now of astronomers. They used Asteroid 1999 RQ176 for their experiment, and their finding is that Comet Elenin lacks the mass to be anything more than what it is - a comet.

http://yowradio.com

 

เค้าคือ Comet Garradd จ้า

 

Map of Stereo-B and Elenin

sydneystargazers | July 31, 2011 at 10:57 pm | Categories: Notes |


For those of you who are unaware, we have included a map below showing you the position of STEREO-B in relation to Elenin.


STEREO-B is following behind the Earth so it is heading right while Elenin is heading in the direction of Mercury.

 

Comet Elenin Passing Stereo-B

sydneystargazers | July 31, 2011 at 7:40 pm | Categories: Notes |




Comet elenin will be passing by the STEREO-B spacecraft at it's closest distance in 4 hours from now. It will pass STEREO-B at 10.35pm Sydney time or 12:30 pm UTC

 

<table style="width:100%" class="ecxpost-details"><tbody><tr><td style="width:48px;margin-right:7px" class="ecxtable-avatar" valign="top"> </td> <td valign="top"> Latest Image of Comet Elenin - July

sydneystargazers | July 31, 2011 at 7:46 am | Categories: Images through my Telescope |
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> This is our latest image of comet elenin from a few days ago. Our picture was not great due to light pollution and the comet being low to the horizon and we had to clean it up a bit but it gives you an idea what the comet looks like at the moment.


We reduced the size of the picture as the original size was too pixely.

 

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MCJLUrHUHw&feature=player_detailpage]‪Jim McCanney ~ What's Going To Happen On 09-26-2011 With Comet Elenin?‬&rlm; - YouTube[/ame]

 

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQWzzqkIbsw&feature=player_detailpage]‪Elenin Aug 1st Position to Stereo B‬&rlm; - YouTube[/ame]

 

The test roll was succesful, let’s wait for August 1 Jul 28th, 2011 @ 01:26 pm › Leonid Elenin
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NASA / GSFC



Karl Battams, one of the STEREO team members confirmed the successful test roll of the spacecraft to 135 degrees. Carl noted that the angle of roll is chosen very well. From 1 to August 5, the comet will be visible in the instrument HI-2B, then observations will be continue with HI-1B camera. The first data will be transmitted to Earth on August 2-3 and will be available from August 4.


The comet may be a very bright and one of the main objectives of the observations will be study the effect of forward scattering. This effect can increase the brightness of comet by several magnitudes and we will see this effect from SOHO spacecraft, in late September.
Observation’s shedule you can find here.




The test roll was succesful, let’s wait for August 1 | SpaceObs


Karl Battams, หนึ่งในทีม ดาวเทียม STEREO ยืนยันว่าได้หมุนดาวเทียมไปที่ 135 องศา คาลบอกไว้ว่าองศาที่เลือกไว้เลือกไว้ได้ดีมาก จาก 1-5 สิงหาคม ดาวหางจะเห็นได้จากเครื่องมือ HI-2B และจะสังเกตได้ต่อไปจาก กล้อง HI-1B ข้อมูลแรกจะถูกส่งมายังโลกวันที่ 2-3 สิงหาคม และจะออกมาถึงมือพวกเรา 4 สิงหาคม